Business closures, AI governance, & online Wills

About this edition

Illuminating possibilities.

Canada’s small-business climate is starting to show signs of real strain. This week, we’re looking at a widening imbalance between business closures and openings, a fresh surge in fuel and shipping pressure, and new AI data that suggests the bigger problem for SMBs is no longer access to the tools, but how well they are being governed once they are in the business.

The common thread: discipline matters more when conditions tighten. Businesses that stay close to costs, planning, and execution will be in a better position than those that wait for things to ease.

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Canada’s small-business strain is deepening

Closures, cost pressure, and Ottawa’s bigger investment pitch.

Canada has now entered what the CFIB calls an ‘entrepreneurial drought’, with business closures outpacing openings for six straight quarters. The problem isn’t spread evenly across the country: more than 70% of it is coming from Ontario, with transportation, professional services, finance, insurance, and real estate under the most pressure. 

When weakness starts to cluster this tightly, it usually means the problem is no longer short-term noise.

Fuel is now a growth problem: The cost side isn’t helping either. Fuel costs are now the top constraint on growth for small firms, affecting 74% of businesses in April, up sharply from 36% in February. Shipping and receiving costs have also climbed, reaching 45% from 26% over the same period, while planned price increases rose to 3.2% in April, the highest monthly jump since the tariff war last March.

That’s where a lot of small firms get trapped. Costs move first, customers resist higher prices, and margins take the hit in the middle. In an environment like this, even stable revenue can start to feel thin.

Ottawa is selling a longer game: Against that backdrop, Ottawa has announced a Canada Investment Summit in Toronto this fall, with the stated goal of unlocking $1 trillion in investment over five years.

That may prove meaningful over the long run. It also sits in sharp contrast to the conditions many small firms are dealing with now. The federal government is pitching Canada’s future to global capital at the same moment a growing number of local operators are still trying to get through the quarter. Both stories matter, yet one is just far more immediate.

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AI adoption is no longer enough

The real issue is usage, rules, and control.

AI adoption in Canadian SMBs is fully underway, but it’s still not as mature as the market may assume. By late 2025, roughly 23% to 28% of Canadian SMBs had moved at least one generative AI tool past pilot stage — enough to say there is progress. It isn’t enough to say businesses have figured out how to manage it well.

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Simple Wills: Our DIY Will toolkit

A task most people delay is easier than expected.

Wills: a task that tends to live in the category of things people plan to sort out at a later time. Then later keeps moving down the line, until it’s too late. 

Simple Wills, our online DIY Wills toolkit, is built for this exact problem. You answer a few straightforward questions, the platform generates your Will in minutes, and the document is ready to print, sign, and store.

It's simple in the way useful products should be. The price is $100, with no subscription and no surprises. It covers British Columbia and Ontario, and includes the instructions needed to sign it properly with two witnesses.

If doing your Will has been sitting on your list for too long, this is a seamless, quick way to get it done properly.

Visit the Simple Wills website to learn more.